Monthly Patterns
Nearly all currency pairs have one or more months during which they have a directional tendency. There are three pairs in particular which have traded in the same direction during a particular month at least seven years in a row. AUD/JPY has risen in January, while USD/CAD has fallen in June and USD/JPY has dropped in August. In each case, the moves have been significant. Let’s take a look at USD/JPY as an example.
On average, USD/JPY has declined over 325 points each year since 1999 in the month of August, which translates to 2.80%. While the percentage does not seem extraordinary, when one takes leverage in to consideration, it is a different story. Had one shorted 100,000 USD/JPY at the start of each August and closed that position out at the end of the month, the total profit would have been in excess of $20,000 (not taking in to account interest carry). That is an outstanding return considering the margin requirement for a position like that is only $2,000. And this does not even consider compounding!
Weekday Patterns
For the short-term trader, there are also Seasonal patterns of behavior which are based on weekdays. It is a little more complicated, however, than just saying buy or sell on Monday, for example. A secondary condition must be applied, which can be accomplished using the month. The result is patterns which take place on certain weekdays during a given month.
An example of this kind of pattern is GBP/USD on Mondays in December. The pound has risen 73% of the time on Monday during the last month of the year since 1999 (31 observations). The average move has been 40 pips. Assuming a 5 pip spread, a trader who entered traded this pattern over the last seven years would have booked over 1000 pips in profits, which translates to more than $10,000 if one took positions of 100,000 GBP/USD each time.
Trading the Seasonal Patterns
The examples outlined above are just a couple of the patterns which can be found in the forex market. There are many worth incorporating in to one’s trading. Obviously, one strategy which could be employed is a simple enter-and-hold based on the pattern for a given month or weekday. That, however, does leave one open to the both in-trade draw downs, some of which can be substantial, and the simple fact that patterns do not always repeat every time, and sometimes change.
An alternative to enter-and-hold is to use calendar patterns to bias one’s trading. For example, a day trader could look for opportunities to buy in to weakness in GBP/USD on Mondays in December. Similarly, a swing trader could use short-term breakdowns to enter in to short trades in USD/JPY during August.
The trader looking to employ forex calendar patterns must utilize the same good risk procedures as are always necessary. This applies regardless of the strategy employed.
