Amidst Utmost Crisis How Is Russian Economy Faring
The GDP of Russia from April – June 2022 has gone down 4 percent compared to a year earlier. The economy has proved its resilience to sanctions but experts now fear a sharp downturn.
President Putin has invaded Ukraine resulting in a major setback to the Russian economy within the first quarter of the attack. Russia was picking up its pace at the start of the year which swung into a complete bleak contraction through the second quarter. Data on the economy at the beginning of August shows that the gross domestic product has dropped at an annual 4 percent. Accounting for the loss, the GDP of Russia is now equal to what it was in 2018 as per the reports of Bloomberg Economics.
The revelation of the Bloomberg Economy
According to Alexander Isakov, a Russian Economist, the economy is expected to lose four prolonged years of its economic growth. The contraction will reduce its pace as we move to the fourth quarter owing to liberal monetary policies allowing demand. With the ban on European energy, the Russian ec4 will shed around 2 percent in 2023.
The shock of international sanctions over the Russia-Ukraine war has completely jeopardized trade and overthrew large-scale industries like car manufacturing while consumer expense has decreased. While the decline of the Russian economy is not as bad as expected, the central bank has projected that the economic slump will continue taking a toll on the economy in the coming days and will reach its nadir in the first two quarters of 2023.
The Russian economy is expected to move towards a long-term equilibrium according to the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia. As the economy will undergo a meticulous restructuring, growth is expected to resume.
Sharp contractions of the Russian Economy won’t cease now
The Russian economy has been bearing the brunt of its war with Ukraine and experts believe it’s going to be the beginning of the yearlong down ride. In the first quarter of 2022, the economy fared quite well with a growth of 3.5 percent but the war overshadowed it completely and brought a steep slide in the second quarter.
With Western sanctions cutting off Russia from around 50 percent of the 600 billion dollar emergency stash of the gold repository as well as foreign currency and imposing strict forbiddance on financial dealings with Russian banks, tons of major corporations have moved out of the nation and severed their access to American technology.
All kinds of imports to Russia has come to a dead end. Financial transactions with western countries have ceased. And the economy is left with no choice but to move to foreign debt on default. But fortunately, the Russian economy is doing much better than expected and the massive fall in Gross Domestic Product was not as remarkable since Russian coffers were prosperous with energy revenue with the surge in global pricing.
However, it doesn’t mean Russia is going to have a whale of a time even while the economic toll is looking large. Oil and gas are two prominent sources of revenue for Russia and with the Western countries turning away from Russia, the economy is likely to suffer even more.
According to the experts, compared to what they thought at the start of the war the Russian economy had to do away with the deep dive, the reality has been only a gentle yet persistent decline. This will continue through 2023 and result in a shallow span of recession for the subsequent two years.
Russian economy: An overview before the start of the war
The Russian economy, synonymous with 1.5 trillion dollars before the war set out, quickly moved in the period right after the start of the war to do away with the effects of crucial sanctions. The central bank altered the interest rate and more than doubled it to 20 percent.
As a result, it was impossible for money to move out of the nation, and the Moscow Exchange was compelled to shut down. Relaxed terms on financial institutions including banks allowed lending. The government also inflated social expenses to support debilitating families along with providing loans for businesses which were curbed down by sanctions.
Fortunately, these measures helped to curtail some of the major impacts of the sanction. With the ruble rebounding, the finances of the nation also reaped the best benefits of high oil prices.
The long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine war
In the words of the chief economist covering the impact of the war on the Russian economy at the Dutch Bank, the country has successfully endured the initial shock of sanction and has proved its mettle in resilience so far. However, it’s crucial to diversify the finances along with trades so that the economy doesn’t become weaker in the long run. While wholesale business operations came down by 15 percent, retail trade went down by around 10 percent.
With the prolonged impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, many countries will opt for severe ties with Russia along with its domestic businesses. Such companies will have to go through testing times in securing replacement parts for equipment and machinery made in Western countries. Also, the software will require significant updates. With imports seizing up, Russian companies must rearrange the nation’s supply chains to survive this economic tragedy.
The energy industry of Russia plays a pivotal role in supporting the economy and it’s been steadily deteriorating due to the war. With the UK and the US banning oil imports from Russia, the latter’s oil output is going to fall in 2023 as the impact of the ban will be largely felt. As per the data of the International Energy Agency, Russia has to look for consumers for around 2.3 million barrels of oil products together with crude oil every day. And this measures up to 20 percent of the mean output this year.
While several countries like Turkey, China, and India have been striving to fill up the vacuum and absorb some of the Russian lost trade, it’s ambiguous how many new consumers would stand by Russia in this hour of crisis.